Can a mix of resignation, resolve and technology leave no stone unturned?

A product of a Catholic School education, I thought the 1970 Rock Opera Jesus Christ Superstar, loosely based on Gospel accounts of the Passion of Christ, was a creative way to tell the “greatest story ever told”.

With music by Andrew Lloyd Webber and lyrics by Tim Rice, the story was conveyed through a series of songs.

In the song "Gethsemane (I Only Want to Say)," Jesus expresses intense emotional and spiritual turmoil as he questions his Father about whether his work and upcoming death will truly have meaning. He ultimately accepts his fate, surrendering to his father’s will with a mix of resignation and resolve.

Paradigms

Essentially a paradigm defines a pattern of how we approach a particular subject or situation. A paradigm shift occurs when a professional community or institution switches allegiance from one paradigm to another.¹

The first half of one of Gethsemane’s stanzas reminds me of how our perception of time can become distorted when we work to convince others that it’s time to shift a paradigm.

For example, the lyrics: Then I was inspired, Now, I'm sad and tired, After-All, I’ve tried for three years, seems like ninety.

Moreover, advocating for a paradigm “allegiance switch” can be especially frustrating when you were not part of the group or institution at the start of the paradigm.

I’m again reminded of the second half of that stanza: “- why, then, am I Scared to finish what I started? What you started! - I didn't start it!

Twenty years - seems like fifty

Just over twenty years ago, my former colleague Richard Leary, and I wrote an article for Forensic Magazine entitled Making New Sense of Evidence.²

For decades, a longstanding paradigm shaped the way ballistic evidence was perceived—largely due to the manual, tedious, and time-consuming nature of firearm and tool mark examination.

The old paradigm established the mindset pattern that the proactive use and comprehensive analysis of ballistics evidence was unlikely to produce information of the highest probable value – in terms of return on investment, in other words, “bang for the buck.”

Our article challenged the longstanding paradigm by presenting the theory that new Automated Ballistic Identification Systems (ABIS) deliver game-changing capabilities that were previously unattainable. We aimed to spark momentum within the professional community—encouraging a critical reassessment of traditional thinking and fostering a gradual shift in allegiance toward a new, more advanced paradigm.

We hoped that the new paradigm would approach the proactive use and comprehensive analysis of ballistic evidence as likely to produce information of the highest probable value.

In theory, every crime is solvable

Police work on the foundational belief that there is no such thing as a perfect crime.

According to Locard’s Exchange Principle: “every contact leaves a trace”—every crime, in theory, is solvable.

However, the sustainability of policing efforts depends on the careful allocation of time, personnel, and resources. Just as individuals routinely weigh their options and make decisions aimed at maximizing value in their personal lives, police must prioritize investigative efforts that offer the greatest potential return.

Given these practical constraints, investigators today are often compelled to prioritize evidence with the highest perceived value—the evidence most likely to yield direct and actionable results. Yet, because every crime is unique, determining which evidence is relevant and worth pursuing is rarely straightforward and requires experience, judgment, and strategic thinking.

The recovery of evidence has mostly been governed by deciding what is relevant.

As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle [Sherlock Holmes] said:

“It is of the highest importance in the art of detection to be able to recognize, out of a number of facts, which are incidental, and which are vital. Otherwise, your energy and attention must be dissipated instead of being concentrated.”

Doyle was making the point that it’s a bad strategy and a poor use of resources to begin overturning every stone just in the hope of finding something.

For instance, when investigating a break-in, police typically begin their search for evidence at the point of entry. From there, they move systematically through areas that appear to have been disturbed—locations where the suspect may have interacted with objects—and conclude at the point of exit, such as a door or window. This methodical approach looks to uncover evidence that could help identify the perpetrator. Entry points such as forced doors or broken windows often present a high potential for producing physical evidence, including fingerprints, DNA, and tool marks.

Guided by the principle of pursuing evidence with the highest probable value, crime scene investigators must constantly assess—and reassess—the appropriate scope of an evidence search in terms of time, effort, and available resources. This task is further complicated by the need to weigh the seriousness and societal impact of the crime against the level of resources that can justifiably be committed to its investigation.

Historically, the extent of crime scene searches has often been arbitrary, constrained by limited tools, and heavily dependent on the investigator’s skill, intuition, and senses to identify the most valuable evidence. Until recently, advancements in tools that augment our ability to detect and interpret trace evidence have progressed slowly, limiting investigative potential.

The case for change in our 2005 article

We wrote that while it remains essential for crime scene examiners to rely on their training and instincts to detect evidence, advancements in forensic science and technology have introduced powerful new tools and methods that greatly enhance this capability. For example, consider how far DNA processing has come. Even the most minute traces—once beyond human detection—can now be recovered and analyzed. What was once overlooked, missed, or dismissed as insignificant can now be recognized as potentially vital.

Furthermore, this evidence can now be stored in enormous databases with automated cataloging and powerful search engines to find hidden relationships. Matches and even evidential leads can be produced routinely to such an extent that what was previously beyond our reach is now within our grasp. In many cases, we can literally “overturn every stone in the hope of finding something of crime-solving value.”

We explored the processes and challenges involved in forensic ballistics, particularly the painstaking task of comparing minute markings and striations on fired ammunition components—such as bullets and cartridge cases—using a comparison microscope. This method had long been recognized as highly manual and time-consuming.

For decades, many forensic laboratories struggled to consistently compare newly recovered evidence against their existing open case files. The routine exchange of ballistic evidence between labs and the ability to query one another’s open case inventories in search of investigative leads was practically unheard of.

The idea of cross-jurisdictional ballistics data sharing once seemed as improbable as human flight did to early civilizations.

We quoted Leonardo da Vinci to highlight a timeless truth: change is constant.

In contemplating the possibility of human flight, Da Vinci once remarked: “There shall be wings—if not for me, then for another.”

Yet for centuries, the idea of human flight was dismissed as fantasy. Perhaps Renaissance society viewed his sketches as mere artistic expression. Still, one has to wonder what the neighbors thought when the Wright brothers began testing their flying machines.

Today, air travel is not only routine—it’s in a constant state of continuous improvement pushing beyond the long-forgotten boundaries of what once seemed impossible. When we wrote this article, the aviation industry had just unveiled plans for a new jumbo jet capable of carrying 800 passengers—complete with an onboard gymnasium.

We wrote that the tide had turned. IBIS technology now enables the correlation of fired evidence at speeds far beyond human capability, facilitates faster and more efficient data exchange, and empowers law enforcement to generate more actionable information than ever before—linking crimes, firearms, and suspects through ballistic evidence.

We predicted: That “Very soon, we will be able to compare every new item of ballistic evidence collected with every other like item of evidence in inventory with the hope of finding actionable information of value.”

Our case was grounded in our firsthand familiarity with Second Generation IBIS® technology, which was introduced and implemented between the mid-1990s and early 2000s.

Technology like:

• IBIS® Next Gen 1.0 (1996) with multitasking computers and dedicated servers, Oracle database, networking capabilities, and fully integrated ballistic analysis.

• IBIS® Next Gen 2.0 (1997) with an automated microscope stage, and desktop analysis workstation.

• IBIS® Next Gen. 3.0 (1999-2003) enabling ejector and rimfire acquisition, side-light breech face acquisition, MultiViewer, large-scale national networking capabilities, and NIBIN security upgrade.

We boldly predicted that in terms of forensic ballistics, information of the highest probable value could be found in the comprehensive collection, imaging, and sharing of all forensic ballistics evidence taken into police custody.

We wrote that “things change” and we must continually be aware of our changing environment so that we can reposition our viewpoints and seize new opportunities to be more efficient and effective at making the world a safer place.

In reality, we had no idea how much and how fast things would change after 2005.

A period of Rapid Innovation in Forensic and Police Technologies

Between 2005 and the present, IBIS® technology moved through three generation changes of game-changing improvements, 3rd Generation (2000s) and 4th Generation (2010s), Featuring high-definition 3D cartridge case acquisition (non-linear photometric stereo 3D), bullet shape acquisition, 3D cartridge case correlation, breech face side light correlation, polygonal bullet correlation, and advanced 3D visual comparison.

Currently, IBIS® is in its Fifth Generation (2020s), offering faster image acquisition, a more compact form factor, enhanced correlation performance, and cloud-based infrastructure. It features an improved bullet-mounting process, a wider field of view, and significantly improved 3D imaging quality—including full 3D headstamp capture of cartridge cases.

Following Ultra Forensic Technology’s acquisition by LeadsOnline in late 2023, a diverse range of IBIS®-leveraging products and services have been integrated with the core IBIS® ballistic solution—expanding its crime-solving capabilities across forensic and investigative workflows.

For example, new IBIS® products such as the Quantum 3D Microscope offer precise 3D measurements to support expert conclusions through objective and scientifically grounded methods—providing confidence levels and false match rates that reinforce the validity of the science and deliver the kind of transparency courts have long been seeking. The false match rate (FMR) represents the degree of probability that two bullets not fired from the same gun would generate a greater IBIS® score than two bullets that were fired from the same gun.

Another new addition to the IBIS line is ClearCase. A new fully automated cartridge case triage solution that speeds up crime gun investigations with precision and ease.

Leveraging over 30 years of ballistic identification innovation and the same advanced algorithms as the IBIS system, ClearCase allows any investigator—without specialized training—to process unlimited cartridge cases quickly. It integrates seamlessly into existing evidence workflows, preserves critical trace evidence like DNA and fingerprints, and provides immediate, unbiased insights into the number and caliber of firearms used. ClearCase helps reduce lab backlogs, cuts operational costs, and enables faster lead development to disrupt gun violence.

Had we written about these new technological advances in 2005; I most likely would not be feeling the need to write this review today hoping to stimulate new discussions and actions within the professional community.

What we and some of our colleagues advocated for back in 2005, is happening today, one could argue perhaps not fast enough.

For example, nine states³ have passed laws requiring police to comprehensively collect and process ballistic evidence through the ATF National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN). Police and forensic experts search NIBIN’s national electronic repository of ballistic evidence and information to link crimes, guns, and suspects across cities, counties, and states.

I can unequivocally say that the nine states by enacting their NIBIN laws have switched allegiance from the old paradigm to the new one. The one that views the proactive use and comprehensive analysis of ballistic evidence as likely to produce information of the highest probable value.

Dr.Richard Leary co-author of the 2005 article

Notwithstanding the preceding focus on ballistics, Dr. Richard Leary’s contributions to our 2005 article extended well beyond that domain—encompassing insights across all forensic databases.

Richard served with the West Midlands Police in England for 27 years, advancing from Scientific Support Officer to Detective Chief Inspector. He played a key role in developing the National DNA Database. In 2000, he was awarded a Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) for his contributions to forensics and policing.

His PhD at University College London resulted in the thesis Evidential Reasoning & Analytical Techniques in Criminal Pre-Trial Fact Investigation, which introduced the FLINTS system—later adopted by several UK police forces.

Leary’s FLINTS system evolved into INTELLOGIC, a method that extracts known connections of forensic information from one forensic database and cross-references it across other forensic databases potentially finding relationships across multiple investigations. By using visualization to reveal hidden connections, it can link evidence such as DNA, fingerprints, and firearms across seemingly unrelated cases—for example, connecting a suspect’s fingerprints from a burglary to DNA from a rape, and further to a gun tied to a murder through ballistics testing.

On May 24, 2015, my friend Dr Richard Leary, MBE, LLB (Hons), died following a three-month battle with cancer.

His life’s work—and the inspiration behind our 2005 article on new technologies breaking old paradigms—was to demonstrate the significant benefits these technologies offer, benefits compelling enough to justify a shift in allegiance to a new paradigm: one that embraces a more informed and forward-looking understanding of what constitutes information of the highest probable value today.

Today’s technology can effectively reach across disparate databases, bringing us closer than ever to the ability to 'overturn every stone' in search of evidence that may have previously remained hidden. Moreover, advancements in forensic science now allow us to examine evidence in greater detail—enabling us to find and collect more, analyze more thoroughly, and draw more reliable conclusions. In short, we’re able to get even more 'bang for our buck' in the pursuit of justice.

Richard would often quote, the father of reforming science Descartes who said, “to make so complete an enumeration of the links…and to pass them all so thoroughly under review, that I could be sure I had missed nothing.”

Although effective police work still requires a continual balance of the amount of time, effort, and resources that can be applied to an investigation, continued developments in science and technology will make us more efficient and cost-effective so that we can someday say - within reason - that given our new tools, “we have missed nothing.”

There shall be wings—if not for me or Richard, then for another.

But there shall be wings!

###

1. T. Nickles, Paradigm Shifts, Editor(s): Mark A. Runco, Steven R. Pritzker, Encyclopedia of Creativity (Second Edition), Academic Press,2011, Pages 209-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-375038-9.00166-7

2. Pete Gagliardi and Richard Leary PhD, Making New Sense of Evidence, Forensic Magazine, January 2005, http://www.forensicmag.com/article/making-new-sense-evidence

3. Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, and New York.